Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 22.540713 23.777877 25.079506 26.556700 28.193665 29.960355 32.022388
2025-12-28 21.105009 22.861633 24.800536 27.120561 29.850297 32.998363 36.962075
2026-01-04 20.079461 22.126377 24.458019 27.350571 30.902080 35.205328 40.956941
2026-01-11 19.350241 21.617737 24.267642 27.655679 31.971158 37.436450 45.161856
2026-01-18 18.616234 21.023636 23.894902 27.657078 32.598288 39.099200 48.763211
2026-01-25 17.810889 20.279632 23.270258 27.264332 32.639590 39.935349 51.254152
2026-02-01 17.095961 19.600458 22.674732 26.848510 32.586872 40.596034 53.522700
2026-02-08 16.425149 18.939399 22.059796 26.355289 32.370031 40.972372 55.359377
2026-02-15 15.958005 18.511098 21.716563 26.194622 32.589977 41.985651 58.346054
2026-02-22 15.762742 18.417049 21.796735 26.604528 33.642547 44.344471 64.005267
2026-03-01 15.318888 17.980474 21.399885 26.321343 33.643241 45.036282 66.758778
2026-03-08 14.770734 17.387750 20.769226 25.672918 33.045750 44.694260 67.470022
2026-03-15 14.334792 16.942494 20.338710 25.315705 32.910441 45.172920 70.045817
2026-03-22 14.225979 16.926446 20.490262 25.806159 34.126719 48.082463 78.350935
2026-03-29 14.031230 16.785216 20.459008 26.019620 34.910937 50.322140 85.838828
2026-04-05 13.871008 16.682899 20.474497 26.298786 35.818093 52.898982 94.997014
2026-04-12 13.633346 16.465309 20.316022 26.300093 36.252901 54.623367 102.576846
2026-04-19 13.298813 16.103612 19.937707 25.940364 36.037655 55.025053 106.574549
2026-04-26 12.975573 15.748627 19.557134 25.559134 35.757952 55.262571 110.192284
2026-05-03 12.647042 15.377968 19.142549 25.106455 35.322888 55.129818 112.633735
2026-05-10 12.423648 15.148508 18.926074 24.958879 35.423671 56.151496 119.363537
2026-05-17 12.360898 15.142083 19.034407 25.335274 36.501296 59.460229 136.107192
2026-05-24 12.123921 14.882659 18.760023 25.075280 36.376941 60.024299 142.565371